Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Politics8342 whales$1.9M
Yes14%18
No86%24
A Wall Street Journal analysis found
70% of Polymarket traders
lose money67% of profits go to
just 0.1%
Tradar is built to follow the 0.1%, by letting you track thebest wallets & suspicious trades.Tradar is built to follow the 0.1%, by letting you track the best wallets & most suspicious trades.
01
Find a Top Active Wallet
Track every behaviour
02
Follow the wallet.
03
See every trade, the minute it's placed.
Smart Money Leaderboard
Active (30d)AllPoliticsWeatherCryptoTech
1
85
92.0%
2
84
28.0%
3
84
36.6%
4
catalanpaths
0xc9727e…524bd9
78
68.8%
5
76
71.4%
6
74
44.2%
7
72
51.8%
8
70
39.5%
9
68
47.1%
10
66
33.9%
11
64
41.0%
12
62
29.6%
FollowFollowing
LeaderboardsPreviousNext
catalanpaths
0xc9727ed40be5ba2a0e0750d51c5e4e60b7524bd9
Last trade 1m ago
FollowPolymarket
90d30d
Overview
Total markets traded
1,561
Distinct Polymarket markets
Total volume
$536,903.41
Official all-time volume
Total PnL
+$34,405
All-time (Polymarket)
Resolved closed book: +$33,593, Open MTM: +$812
Smart money
78
#4 on Smart Money leaderboard
Performance · 90D
Win rate
68.8%
ROI
+32.8%
+$25,385 on $85,467.37 realized capital
Wins
825
Losses
375
11 breakeven excluded from win rate
30-day total P&L
+$14,174past 30 days
$15k$10k$5k$0
5 Aug9 Aug13 Aug17 Aug21 Aug25 Aug29 Aug3 Sep
Source: Polymarket profile P&L. (As of Sep 3)
Behaviour analysis
Average position holding duration
4.3 days
Average time from entry to resolution
Typical trade ROI
+143.2%
Equal capital per trade
Average trade size
$66.68
Average entry price
42.1%
Trading patterns
Probability preference
30–45%
Low probability
Total positions
1,211
Resolved outcomes
Peak hours (ET)
12 PM3 PM4 PM5 PM6 PM
Trading frequency
5+ per day
Contrarian behaviour analysis
Extreme low
516
<30%
Extreme high
285
>70%
Contrarian ratio
43.0%
High contrarian
Performance by probability
Performance across different probabilities
Compares entry probability against win rate in each probability range.
100%50%0%
0–10%10–20%20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%90–100%
Where this trader puts their money
+$80,378 capital deployed
$20k$10k$0
0–10%10–20%20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%90–100%
PnL by entry probability
+$26,395 Last 90 days
$15k$10k$5k$0
0–10%10–20%20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%90–100%
Category analysis
Performance by market category
Politics477 pos+31.0%
Other412 pos+44.0%
Sports202 pos+21.5%
Macro86 pos+8.4%
Weather34 pos−12.1%
Trades by category
Politics 39%
Other 34%
Sports 17%
Macro 7%
Weather 3%
Recent trades
Active positions
View all ›Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No 86.0¢ · 1m ago
$5,506.27
$0.00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
No 87.2¢ · 47h ago
$3,763.43
+$291.77
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
No 95.3¢ · 2d ago
$57,598.35
+$1,186.05
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
No 86.6¢ · 2d ago
$447,329.61
+$14,576.95
catalanpaths
0xc9727e…524bd9
Status
AllActiveResolved
Live7s ago15 openShowing 14
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No 86.0¢ · 6,674.27 shares
$5,506.27
$0.00 (0.00%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
No 87.2¢ · 3,982.47 shares
$3,763.43
+$291.77 (+8.40%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
No 95.3¢ · 59,166.26 shares
$57,598.35
+$1,186.05 (+2.10%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
No 86.6¢ · 499,809.62 shares
$447,329.61
+$14,576.95 (+3.37%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
No 80.9¢ · 17,486.76 shares
$16,699.86
+$2,549.13 (+18.01%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
No 92.6¢ · 114,721.49 shares
$113,688.99
+$7,426.27 (+6.99%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
No 87.0¢ · 161,974.75 shares
$157,682.42
+$16,716.60 (+11.86%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 96.1¢ · 43,168.3 shares
$41,549.49
+$65.17 (+0.16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
No 91.0¢ · 4,092.72 shares
$3,703.91
−$20.45 (−0.55%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No 87.8¢ · 13,599.88 shares
$12,443.89
+$500.35 (+4.19%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
No 92.3¢ · 41,269.33 shares
$38,586.83
+$505.34 (+1.33%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?
No 86.0¢ · 1,932.35 shares
$1,642.50
−$19.32 (−1.16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
No 87.0¢ · 10,208.06 shares
$8,421.65
−$459.35 (−5.17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
No 97.8¢ · 223,726.8 shares
$222,496.31
+$3,692.39 (+1.69%)
01
Find a Top Active Wallet
Smart Money Leaderboard
Active (30d)AllPoliticsCryptoSports
1
85
92.0%
2
84
28.0%
3
84
36.6%
4
catalanpaths
0xc9727e…524bd9
78
68.8%
5
76
71.4%
02
Follow the wallet.
catalanpaths
0xc9727ed40be5ba2a0e0750d51c5e4e60b7524bd9
Last trade 1m ago
FollowingPolymarket ↗
Win rate
68.8%
Total PnL
+$34,405
30-day total P&L
+$14,174past 30 days
$15k$10k$5k$0
5 Aug9 Aug13 Aug17 Aug21 Aug25 Aug29 Aug3 Sep
Track every behaviour
catalanpaths
Behaviour analysis · 90d
Performance across different probabilities
Entry probability vs. win rate in each range.
100%50%0%
0–10%10–20%20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%90–100%
Where this trader puts their money
+$80,378 capital deployed
$20k$10k$0
0–10%10–20%20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%90–100%
PnL by entry probability
+$26,395 Last 90 days
$15k$10k$5k$0
0–10%10–20%20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%90–100%
03
See every trade, the minute it's placed.
catalanpaths
Live feed
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No 86.0¢ · 1m ago$5,506.27
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
No 87.2¢ · 47h ago$3,763.43
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
No 95.3¢ · 2d ago$57,598.35
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
No 86.6¢ · 2d ago$447,329.61
Or simply follow our live copy suggestions
The smartest polymarket algorithm available, highest scoring historical suggestions have averaged as much as 231% ROI.
When thebestwallets,Trade in theirbestcategoryAt theirbestprobabilities
Track hundreds of trades instantly:
Live CopyLive
Live copy feed
Best now24HNewestAll
91
anonymous5474495
2m agoWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 5?
No · now 91%109 trades
63
PintouOClima
11m agoWill Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?
No · now 87%82 trades
57
anonymous5474495
18m agoWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of August 31 2026?
No · now 96%51 trades
54
anonymous1766579
27m agoCounter-Strike: Omega vs QUAZAR — Map 2 Winner
Omega · now 36%20 trades
100% Transparency Policy
See every win & loss ever suggested the moment the trade resolves.
Standard
Higher probability picks, $100 per trade
ScoreWin rateRoiRecord
≥ 068%+12.6%2687W–1292L, 3979
≥ 5068%+12.6%2687W–1291L, 3978
≥ 6071%+10.9%2311W–965L, 3276
≥ 7075%+11.6%1787W–588L, 2375
≥ 8083%+13.1%1101W–224L, 1325
≥ 9091%+20.1%651W–68L, 719
Moonshot
Long-shot picks with big payouts, $100 per trade
ScoreWin rateRoiRecord
≥ 025%+88.7%142W–431L, 573
≥ 5020%+129.2%44W–178L, 222
≥ 6021%+167.2%38W–139L, 177
≥ 7023%+207.8%33W–109L, 142
≥ 8023%+224.1%28W–93L, 121
≥ 9025%+231%22W–67L, 89
Trade like anInsider
Alerts on
suspicious behaviour?See new wallets placing huge bets on suspicious behaviour. The algorithm flags them.
Coordinated bets
across wallets?Insiders often split their bet across multiple wallets and markets. You see clusters of bets placed on similar markets and theses.
BackAlert detail
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Burdensome-Mix
4d old wallet, 7 fills in alert
Buy Yes
7.4% entry
+$404,221
Won
Scan which markets the top whalesand potential insiders are in.
See where the best wallets bet against everyone else.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Macro9530 whales$472K
Yes51%20
No49%10
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics8939 whales$4.9M
Yes24%21
No76%18
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Other7121 whales$3.8M
Yes4%9
No96%12
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Macro5126 whales$408K
Yes72%19
No28%8
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Tech343 whales$1.3K
Yes13%2
No87%1
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Politics826 whales$1.8M
Yes8%6
No92%17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Macro8226 whales$769K
Yes51%16
No49%12
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics930 whales$717K
Yes56%14
No44%11
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model in October 2026?
Tech44 whales$1.7K
Yes78%3
No22%1
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto811 whales$1.3M
Yes8%3
No92%9
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Politics6819 whales$71K
Yes35%8
No65%10
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
Weather453 whales$6.5K
Yes21%2
No79%1
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Crypto7515 whales$40K
Yes14%8
No86%7
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto77 whales$11K
Yes8%2
No92%6
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Politics822 whales$476K
Yes27%7
No73%13
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Tech128 whales$6.5K
Yes92%6
No8%2
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US before 2027?
Weather191 whales$1.2K
Yes16%1
No84%1
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Politics6419 whales$2.7M
Yes7%5
No93%16
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Politics8320 whales$120K
Yes6%4
No94%15
We are the resistance.
The winners take the losers' money.
That is how betting works.
Our analysis team realised that top traders
do not always win because they are
smarter or have better systems. Sometimes, they simply have information that you do not.
The already privileged take your money,
while you play fair. We cannot remove that imbalance. If you can't beat them join them.
Tradar exists so you can follow those wallets,
watch how they trade, and catch the bets
that look like they already know the outcome.
Tradar is still early. There is much more to build. Your membership does more than unlock the platform. It helps fund the data, infrastructure and research needed to keep expanding it.
Tradar is still early. There is much more to build.
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For informational purposes only. No guaranteed outcomes.
FAQs
Leaderboards rank thousands of wallets by performance, ROI and trading behaviour. Follow multiple wallets and build a watchlist to see every trade the minute a watched wallet places it.
Transparent copy-trade suggestions rank new fills from wallets that are strong in that category and probability. Potential Insider Alerts flag unusual size on long-shot outcomes. Markets shows which books tracked whales are in, and whether they are leaning against the price.